Instead of betting blindly on a Super Bowl winner in the upcoming NFL Football Season, I like to make a short list of contenders, bubble teams, and “the rest” after eliminating teams that have no shot. The “no shot” teams consist of the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, and the St. Louis Rams. The top teams (who look and feel like Super Bowl contenders to me NOW) are Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and the NY Giants – while the “bubble teams” are Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals.
Sorting Through the Field
The remaining 17 teams I throw into a category known as “the field.” I have eliminated five teams from the field, and given ten teams ranking higher than the field. Recently, there have been teams who have risen above the ranks of “the field” and I intend to identify such teams later. The “field teams” that stick out in my mind are the Carolina Panthers, as well as the Tennessee Titans. I will make a not of them and come back to the field later.
Assigning Values to Each Level
After I have my three groups of NFL Teams, I give each group a level of confidence. More specifically, I assign the top tier group a 50% chance of producing a Super Bowl winner. Additionally, I give the second tier or bubble group a 30% chance of berthing a winner, and finally the field gets a 20% chance of containing the Super Bowl Champs in 2010 – with the top two field teams getting a lion’s share of the probability.
Field Breakdown
I have 20% to spend on 17 teams, of which I give two teams the majority of the weight from the field. If I give each team equal weighting, they would each get roughly 100 to 1 Football betting odds. The problem is, while I think teams such as San Fran are close to 100 to one, I do not find Carolina or Tennessee 100 to 1 shots, which is why I simply give them a better shot at winning. I remove from consideration any other field team. That being said, I give nearly half of my field allocation to Carolina and Tennessee, while allocating 12% odds to the remaining 15 teams. This sets Carolina and Tennessee at roughly 25 to 1 on my personal line to win the super bowl.
Bubble Breakdown
The bubble gets 30% among five teams, which comes out to a 6% shot for each of the bubble level teams (roughly 16 to 1 odds). Of the bubble teams, there is heavy value in Buffalo, while only slight value in Arizona and New Orleans. Indy and Chicago present no value.
Top Tier Breakdown
Each of my five top tier teams gets 10%. Pittsburgh and New England show no value, while Dallas shows promise, and San Diego and the Giants show slight value.
Putting it Together
I found no true value in the field, as the lines are close to the values I placed on the only teams I see as true contenders. From the bubble, I love Buffalo, while I see the Saints and Cardinals as showing promise on a good return for my money. Dallas, San Diego and the Giants are additionally promising futures plays. When its all said and done, however, I like the future odds of a Buffalo – Dallas Super Bowl.